MISSISSIPPI STATE -- Mother Nature and the agricultural markets must have known they needed to make up for 2002 with Mississippi's farmers, and agricultural economists now predict a record of $5.6 billion for the state's 2003 farm-gate value.

Mississippi's agricultural value of production is predicted to increase 31 percent from the 2002 total of $4.3 billion.

John Anderson, agricultural economist with Mississippi State University's Extension Service, said record or near-record yields in several major crops along with some significantly higher market prices are combining to make 2003 a year to remember.

Price projections from the U.S. Department of Agriculture suggest a 72 percent increase in rice prices, a 35 percent increase in cotton prices and a 30 percent increase in soybean prices. Calf prices for the year are up about 10 percent, but by fall, when most Mississippians market their calves, prices were about 18 percent higher than the previous year.

"In many cases, the percentage changes in yields are the result of devastating conditions during the 2002 harvest season. Both 2002 and 2003 had good growing conditions, but where rains made harvests in 2002 disastrous, the harvest weather in 2003 was near perfect," Anderson said.

The 2002 fall rains specifically hurt cotton, soybeans, rice and sweet potatoes. All three are expected to post record or near-record 2003 yields when the final tallies are counted. Unfortunately, the wet 2002 fall prevented growers from planting as much wheat as they had intended, which resulted in a 20 percent decline in the 2003 wheat value.

"The three crops with the most significant percentage increases in value are sweet potatoes with a 116 percent increase, and rice and cotton, both with 78 percent increases," Anderson said.

Bill Burdine, Extension area agronomist in Chickasaw County, said growers harvested a bumper crop of sweet potatoes with a higher percentage of No. 1 grade potatoes. Growers harvested on average about 160 pounds per hundredweight per acre in 2002, and about 180 pounds per hundredweight in 2003.

One of the biggest differences in the two years was the large number of abandoned fields in 2002 due to excessive rains. Growers planted 16,000 acres in 2002 and harvested 12,300. In 2003, growers planted 14,000 acres and harvested 13,600.

"Additionally, prices have been running about 40 percent higher. The three major sweet potato states (North Carolina, Louisiana and Mississippi) all produced good crops, but the national supplies were low going into the 2003-2004 marketing season because of lost production in 2002," Burdine said.

The value of sweet potatoes is expected to increase from $27 million in 2002 to $58 million in 2003. Rice increased from $62 million to $111 million, and cotton went from $439 million in 2002 to $780 million in 2003.

Other big increases included a 49 percent jump in soybeans and an almost 15 percent increase in poultry, the state's top agricultural industry. The 2003 value of soybeans is about $363 million, and poultry is $1.6 billion.

"A near 15 percent increase in a billion dollar industry is significant to the state," Anderson said. "The industry appears to be recovering from the 2002 export losses to Russia. Additional credit for the 25 percent increase in egg values may go to consumers eating more protein in their diets."

The only agronomic crop other than wheat to post a loss in 2003 was corn. Growers were able to harvest a record crop in 2002 before the fall rains hit and benefitted from higher prices than in 2003. The value of corn is predicted near $145 million, down about 7 percent from the previous year.

Forestry, the state's second-leading agricultural commodity, is valued at $1.03 billion, almost 3 percent below the 2002 value.

"Most industry watchers believe the state's forest values are beginning to stabilize," Anderson said. "The decline from 2000 to 2001 was 17 percent. In 2002, the decline was 3.6 percent. Now, with less than a 1 percent loss, we're hoping for an increase in 2004."

While the strong prices in the cattle market have received headlines nationally, the best prices are in fed and feeder cattle levels. Mississippi's cow/calf producers have enjoyed better prices as well, just to a lesser degree.

"The cattle industry is not experiencing record prices for calves like it has for fed cattle, but all producers are benefitting from the strong markets," Anderson said. "Even with lower cattle numbers, Mississippi's value of cattle and calves is expected to increase about 7 percent to $194 million.

"Another big factor in Mississippi's farm-gate value is the total of government payments, which may reach $828 million for 2003," Anderson said. "Much of these payments, however, were related to the 2001 and 2002 crops, rather than the 2003 crops."

NOTE:
Values as of Dec. 17, 2003
Does not include some minor commodities.

¹Cash receipts for watermelons, miscellaneous vegetables, pecans, other fruits and nuts, floriculture, greenhouse/nursery, and other seed and field crops as reported by Mississippi Agricultural Statistics Service.

Source: Agricultural Economics Departmnt, Mississippi State University Extnsion Service

Contact: Dr. John Anderson, (662) 325-1788