2024 Projected Rice Returns Summary

This publication summarizes projected returns for rice produced in Mississippi for 2024. Returns are calculated through income and expense estimates and can also be seen in the 2024 Planning Budgets created by the Department of Agricultural Economics at Mississippi State University. The estimated rice price is $5.66 per bushel, which is based on the forward futures contract price, including the average basis at the estimated time of harvest delivery. Table 1 presents the estimated average crop yields for each rice seed type from the 2024 Planning Budgets.

Expenses, which are defined as “total specified expenses,” include estimated variable and fixed costs associated with crop production. Variable costs include seed, fertilizer, chemical, fuel, repair and maintenance, and any other costs incurred through only crop production. Fixed costs include machinery costs, which are incurred regardless of crop production.

Returns are calculated for rice production. The returns for each crop are an average for each seed type used in the 2024 Planning Budgets. Therefore, actual returns accrued may be different than those presented in this article. Returns are estimated in dollars per acre.

Rice Returns

A graphical representation of estimated returns above total specified expenses can be seen in Figure 1. All rice types incurred negative return estimates for 2024. Returns can also vary greatly depending upon seed types used. The differences in returns can be largely attributed to differences in pesticides and irrigation practices used in crop production. Conventional Hybrid rice has the highest average returns at -$211.08 per acre. Conventional and Fullpage rice have returns of -$235.61 and -$276.82 per acre, respectively. Provisia returns are estimated to be -$314.56 per acre, while Clearfield returns are expected to be -$323.87 per acre.

Conclusion

The information presented can be useful for growers making planting and financial decisions as well as others involved in agricultural finance. The information presented is based on planning budgets created by the Department of Agricultural Economics at Mississippi State University. Since the returns presented here are estimates, it should be understood that actual returns can change based on differing crop prices, crop yields, and production practices.

For more information regarding the 2024 Planning Budgets and for interactive budget spreadsheets, please visit https://www.agecon.msstate.edu/whatwedo/budgets.php.

The information given here is for educational purposes only. References to commercial products, trade names, or suppliers are made with the understanding that no endorsement is implied and that no discrimination against other products or suppliers is intended.

Publication 3997 (POD-04-24)

By Evan Gregory, Extension Associate II, Agricultural Economics.