2023 Projected Rice Returns Summary

This publication summarizes projected returns for rice produced in Mississippi for 2023. Returns are calculated through income and expense estimates and can also be seen in the 2023 Planning Budgets created by the Department of Agricultural Economics at Mississippi State University. The estimated rice price is $6.75 per bushel, which is based on the forward futures contract price including the average basis at the estimated time of harvest delivery. Table 1 presents the estimated average crop yields for each rice seed type from the 2023 planning budgets.

Expenses, which are defined as “Total Specified Expenses,” include estimated variable and fixed costs associated with crop production. Variable costs include seed, fertilizer, chemicals, fuel, repair and maintenance, and any other costs that are incurred only through crop production. Fixed costs include machinery costs that are incurred regardless of crop production.

Returns are calculated for rice production. The returns for each crop are an average for each seed type used in the 2023 Planning Budgets. Therefore, actual returns accrued may be different than those presented in this publication. Returns are estimated in dollars per acre.

Rice Returns

A graphical representation of estimated returns above total specified expenses can be seen in Figure 1. Returns can vary greatly depending upon seed types used. The differences in returns can be largely attributed to differences in pesticides and irrigation practices used in crop production. Conventional hybrid rice has the highest average returns at $42.80 per acre. All other rice types are expected to render negative returns. Conventional and Fullpage rice have similar returns of -$43.76 and -$51.48 per acre, respectively. Provisia returns are estimated to be -$117.75 per acre, while Clearfield returns are expected to be -$112.46 per acre.

Table 1. Estimated rice yield.

Figure 1. Returns above total specified expenses for rice produced in Mississippi.

Conclusion

The purpose of this publication is to summarize returns of rice production in Mississippi. The information presented can be useful for growers making planting and financial decisions, as well as others involved in agricultural finance. The information presented is based on planning budgets created by the Department of Agricultural Economics at Mississippi State University. Since these returns are estimates, please understand that actual returns can change based on differing crop prices, crop yields, and production practices.

For more information regarding the 2023 Planning Budgets and for interactive budget spreadsheets, please visit: https://www.agecon.msstate.edu/whatwedo/budgets.php.

Publication 3903 (POD-05-23)

By Evan Gregory, Extension Associate I, Agricultural Economics.