Mississippi MarketMaker

Vol. 15, No. 8 / Tariffs on U.S. Tilapia Imports: Direct Revenues and Impacts on Prices

ABSTRACT

• This newsletter examines the revenue impacts of tariffs and identifies the types of U.S. tilapia imports.
• It shows the long-term annual U.S. tilapia imports and the major countries of origin of U.S. tilapia imports.
• It also summarizes the calculated duties on tilapia imports per year and their impacts on average import prices.

KEYWORDS

• Tilapia imports, calculated duties, and major countries of origin.

METHODS

• The direct revenue impacts of U.S. tilapia imports are the sum of the calculated duties imposed on imported tilapia products.
• Annual data on U.S. tilapia imports are compiled from the NOAA Fisheries website from January 1992 to April 2025. NOAA Fisheries. 
• The calculated duties on tilapia imports are summarized per year per country of origin.
• An econometric model is estimated to measure the impacts of calculated duties on the prices of imported tilapia products.
• The econometric model of U.S. Tilapia Import Price (dollars per pound) assumes that import prices could be explained by:
  • Year,
  • Calculated duty (%),
  • Country of origin (1 or 0),
  • Other variables.
• The Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) model of U.S. Tilapia Import Price consists of the following dependent variable:
  •  Deflated imputed average import price (dollars per pound). 
• The OLS model of U.S. tilapia import price is estimated by using the robust variance procedure of STATA-19.
• The variation inflation factor is calculated to detect the possible presence of multicollinearity.
• The marginal impacts are computed using the margins procedure.

TOTAL U.S. TILAPIA IMPORT VALUES AND VOLUMES

• Fig. 1 shows the total U.S. tilapia import values since 1992.
• Import values consistently rose from 1992, reaching their peak in 2014 at $1.12 billion.
• Since the start of the U.S.-China trade war in July 2018, the mean import value has reached $675 million per year.
• Fig. 2 shows the total U.S. tilapia import volumes since 1992.
• Import values consistently rose from 1992, reaching their peak between 2012 and 2015 at more than 500 million pounds per year.
• Since the start of the U.S.-China trade war in July 2018, the total U.S. import volumes of tilapia have fallen, averaging 400 million pounds per year.

COUNTRIES OF ORIGIN OF U.S. TILAPIA IMPORT VALUES

• Fig. 3 to 5 show the major countries of origin of total U.S. tilapia imports in 2018, 2024, and Jan-Apr 2025.
• China supplied 64.5% of U.S. tilapia imports in 2018.
• The U.S.-China trade war since 2018 reduced China's share to 52.1% in 2024 and 54.6% in 2025.
• Colombia provided 7.3% of U.S. tilapia imports in 2018, 14.5% in 2024, and 12.7% in 2025.
• Honduras sold 6.8% of U.S. tilapia imports in 2018, 4.6% in 2024, and 4.1% in 2025.
• Indonesia shipped 6.2% of U.S. tilapia imports in 2018, 9.6% in 2024, and 6.2% in 2025.
• Costa Rica provided 4.5% of U.S. tilapia imports in 2018, 1.7% in 2024, and a negligible amount in 2025.
• Taiwan's share of U.S. tilapia imports rose from 4.2% in 2018 to 5.7% in 2024 and to 6.8% in 2025.
• Mexico sold 2.2% of U.S. tilapia imports in 2018, a negligible amount in 2024, and 2.0% in 2025.

CALCULATED DUTIES ON U.S. TILAPIA IMPORTS FROM CHINA

• Fig. 6 shows the calculated duties on the total U.S. tilapia imports since 2013.
• Significant amounts of duties reaching $13.8 million were collected from U.S. tilapia imports when the U.S.-China trade war started in July 2018 (Fig. 6).
• Total calculated duties reached their peak in 2022 at $99.4 million.
• The bulk of duties collected from U.S. tilapia imports since the U.S.-China trade war started in July 2018 were imposed on China (Fig. 7).

IMPUTED AVERAGE PRICES OF U.S. TILAPIA IMPORTS

• Fig. 8 shows the nominal imputed prices of U.S. tilapia imports since 1992.
• Since 1992, the nominal import prices continued to rise, reaching their peak at $2.19 per pound in 2014.
• The nominal imputed prices of U.S. tilapia imports have fluctuated between $1.50 and $2.00 per pound since 2015.
• Fig. 9 shows the scatter diagram between deflated imputed average prices and calculated duties on U.S. tilapia imports since 2018.
• The empirical relationship indicates that deflated imputed prices tend to fall as calculated duties increased to 25%.
• When calculated duties increased by more than 25%, the deflated imputed average tends to rise.
• These results indicate that there is no definite distribution of the tariff burdens on U.S. tilapia imports between countries of origin and U.S. importers.
• Fig. 10 shows the insignificant results of the econometric model on deflated imputed average prices of U.S. tilapia imports since 2018.
• The average deflated import prices of U.S. tilapia imports did not significantly fall over time.
• The average deflated import prices of U.S. tilapia imports were not significantly lower at higher volumes of imports.
• The average deflated import prices of U.S. tilapia imports were lower, but not significant, at higher calculated duties.
• The average deflated import prices of U.S. tilapia imports were not considerably higher for imports from China.

SUMMARY, LIMITATIONS, AND IMPLICATIONS

• China supplied 64.5% of U.S. tilapia imports in 2018. The U.S.-China trade war since 2018 reduced China's share to 52.1% in 2024 and 54.6% in 2025.
• Significant amounts of duties, reaching $13.8 million, were collected from U.S. tilapia imports when the U.S.-China trade war started in July 2018. Total calculated duties reached their peak in 2022 at $99.4 million
• The bulk of duties collected from U.S. tilapia imports since the U.S.-China trade war started in July 2018 were imposed on China.
• The average deflated import prices of U.S. tilapia imports were not significantly influenced by time, volume of imports, rates of calculated duties, or country of origin.
• These results indicate that there is no definite distribution of the tariff burdens on U.S. tilapia imports between countries of origin and U.S. importers.

ACKNOWLEDGEMENT

• This newsletter is a contribution of the Mississippi Agricultural and Forestry Experiment Station and the Mississippi State University Extension Service. This material is based upon work supported in part by the National Institute of Food and Agriculture, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Hatch project under accession number 100004. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the author. They should not be construed to represent any official USDA or U.S. Government determination or policy. 
• This work was supported in part by the Mississippi-Alabama Sea Grant Consortium, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce, and the states of Alabama and Mississippi—federal grant number NA24OARX417C0155-T1-01. The statements, findings, conclusions, and recommendations are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of any of these funders.

SUGGESTED CITATION

• Posadas, Benedict C. 2025. Tariffs on U.S. Tilapia Imports: Direct Revenues and Impacts on Prices. Vol. 15, No. 8. Mississippi State University Extension and Mississippi-Alabama Sea Grant Publication MASGP-25-058-8. July 31, 2025. Mississippi MarketMaker Newsletter.

ADDITIONAL MATERIAL

·Posadas, Benedict C. 2025. Tariffs on U.S. Tilapia Imports: Direct Revenues and Impacts on Prices. Informational virtual presentation. Horticulture and Marine Economics Outreach, Vol. 2025, No. 18. Mississippi State University, Coastal Research and Extension Center, Biloxi, MS.  2025-18 DIRECT REVENUES AND IMPACTS OF TARIFFS ON U S TILAPIA IMPORT PRICES, VOL. 2.