Vol. 16, No. 6 / Price Impacts of Tariffs on U.S. Imports of Live/Fresh and Frozen Oysters

Abstract 

• This newsletter compiles the monthly selected U.S. oyster imports and calculated duties from January 2021 to January 2026. 
• The average oyster import prices are imputed from the values and volumes of selected oyster imports.
• This newsletter explores the impacts on the imputed average prices of selected U.S. oyster imports by calculated duties and selected economic factors. 

Keywords 

• Oyster imports, calculated duties, and price impacts. 

Suggested Citation 

Posadas, Benedict C. 2026. Price Impacts of Tariffs on U.S. Imports of Live/Fresh and Frozen Oysters. Vol. 16, No. 6. Mississippi State University Extension and Mississippi-Alabama Grant Publication MASGP-26-059-6. May 15, 2026. https://extension.msstate.edu/newsletters/mississippi-marketmaker. 

Methods 

• Monthly data on selected U.S. oyster imports are compiled from the NOAA Fisheries website from January 2021 to January 2026. 
• The calculated duties on selected U.S. oyster imports are summarized monthly since January 2021. 
• An econometric model is estimated to measure the impacts of calculated duties and selected economic factors on the imputed average prices of selected U.S. oyster products.
• Source of raw data: https://www.fisheries.noaa.gov/foss. 

U.S. Seafood Trade Model

• The econometric model of the U.S. SEAFOOD TRADE assumes that import prices could be explained by: 
  • Year,
  • Month, 
  • Product source (wild or farmed), 
  • Product form (live/fresh, frozen), 
  • Average calculated duties (%),
  • Volume of imports (lb),
  • Other variables. 
• The Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) model of U.S. SEAFOOD TRADE consists of the following dependent variables:
  • Deflated imputed average import price ($/kg).
• The OLS model of U.S. seafood trade is estimated using the robust variance procedure in Stata 19.
• The variation inflation factor is calculated to detect the possible presence of multicollinearity.
• The marginal impacts are computed using the margins procedure. 

U.S. Monthly Imports of Frozen Oysters

• Figure 1 shows the relatively flat scatter diagram between the deflated prices and calculated duties on U.S. monthly imports of frozen oysters.
• Figure 2 shows the downward sloping scatter diagram between the deflated prices and U.S. monthly imports of frozen oysters.
• U.S. imports of frozen oysters consisted of frozen farmed oysters and frozen wild oysters. 
• Frozen farmed oyster imports were subjected to calculated duties starting in April 2025.
• Calculated duties were imposed on frozen wild oyster imports starting February 2025. 

U.S. Monthly Imports of Live/Fresh Oysters

• Figure 3 shows the relatively flat scatter diagram between the deflated prices and calculated duties on U.S. monthly imports of live/fresh oysters.
• Figure 4 shows the downward sloping scatter diagram between the deflated prices and U.S. monthly imports of live/fresh oysters.
• U.S. imports of live/fresh oysters consisted of live/fresh farmed oysters and live/fresh wild oysters. 
• Live/Fresh farmed oysters imports were subjected to calculated duties starting in June 2025.
• Calculated duties were imposed on live/fresh wild oyster imports starting May 2025. 

Direct Impacts on Deflated Prices of U.S. Monthly Imports of Frozen Oysters

• Figure 5 shows the direct impacts on deflated prices of U.S. monthly imports of frozen oysters by calculated duties and selected economic factors. 
• Three factors exerted significant impacts on the deflated prices of U.S. monthly imports of frozen oysters.
• The deflated prices of U.S. monthly imports of frozen oysters were significantly declining over time.
• Significantly higher deflated prices of U.S. monthly imports of frozen oysters were observed in October.
• The deflated prices of U.S. monthly imports of farmed frozen oysters were significantly lower than the wild frozen oysters.
• Calculated duties have negative but insignificant effects on deflated prices of U.S. monthly imports of frozen oysters. 

Direct Impacts on Deflated Prices of U.S. Monthly Imports of Live/Fresh Oysters

• Figure 6 shows the direct impacts on deflated prices of U.S. monthly imports of live-fresh oysters by calculated duties and selected economic factors. 
• Five factors exerted significant impacts on the deflated prices of U.S. monthly imports of live-fresh oysters.
• Significantly lower deflated prices of U.S. monthly imports of live-fresh oysters were observed in May, June, and July.
• The deflated prices of U.S. monthly imports of farmed live-fresh oysters were significantly lower than the wild live-fresh oysters.
• Calculated duties have negative and significant effects on deflated prices of U.S. monthly imports of live-fresh oysters. 

Summary, Limitations, and Implications

• U.S. imports of frozen oysters consisted of frozen farmed oysters and frozen wild oysters. 
• Frozen farmed oyster imports were subjected to calculated duties starting in April 2025.
• Calculated duties were imposed on frozen wild oyster imports starting February 2025. 
• U.S. imports of live/fresh oysters consisted of live/fresh farmed oysters and live/fresh wild oysters. 
• Live/Fresh farmed oysters imports were subjected to calculated duties starting in June 2025.
• Calculated duties were imposed on live/fresh wild oyster imports starting May 2025. 
• Three factors exerted significant impacts on the deflated prices of U.S. monthly imports of frozen oysters.
• The deflated prices of U.S. monthly imports of frozen oysters were significantly declining over time.
• Significantly higher deflated prices of U.S. monthly imports of frozen oysters were observed in October.
• The deflated prices of U.S. monthly imports of farmed frozen oysters were significantly lower than the wild frozen oysters.
• Calculated duties have negative but insignificant effects on deflated prices of U.S. monthly imports of frozen oysters. 
• Five factors exerted significant impacts on the deflated prices of U.S. monthly imports of live-fresh oysters.
• Significantly lower deflated prices of U.S. monthly imports of  live-fresh oysters were observed in May, June, and July.
• The deflated prices of U.S. monthly imports of farmed live-fresh oysters were significantly lower than the wild live-fresh oysters.
• Calculated duties have negative and significant effects on deflated prices of U.S. monthly imports of live-fresh oysters. 

Acknowledgements 

• This newsletter is a contribution of the Mississippi Agricultural and Forestry Experiment Station and the Mississippi State University Extension Service.  
• This material is based on work supported in part by the National Institute of Food and Agriculture, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Hatch project under accession number 100004, and  
• The Mississippi-Alabama Sea Grant Consortium, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce, and the states of Alabama and Mississippi. Federal grant number NA24OARX417C0155-T1-01.  
• The statements, findings, conclusions, and recommendations are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of any of these funders.