MSU Forestry receives USDA risk study grant

STARKVILLE, Miss. -- A Mississippi State University forestry research team received a competitive $590,000 grant from the U.S. Department of Agriculture to study market dynamics, risks and resilience in the southern U.S. forest sector.

Sabhyata Lamichhane, MSU assistant professor and Extension forest economics specialist, said the southern United States is the largest timber‑producing region in the world and a cornerstone of rural economies.

“At the same time, forest markets across the region are facing increasing uncertainty driven by price volatility, shifting product demand, economic disruptions and major storm events,” she said. “To address these challenges, the team will work on developing data‑driven tools that improve forecasts of timber supply, demand and prices across the South.

“A central component of the project is the use of artificial intelligence and machine‑learning methods that can analyze complex interactions among forest inventories, market conditions and environmental drivers.”

The project -- Southern Forest Market Outlook: Exploring Market Dynamics and Risks -- is led by Lamichhane and funded by the USDA National Institute of Food and Agriculture. The work brings together expertise from MSU, Louisiana State University AgCenter, North Carolina State University, the University of Georgia and the USDA Forest Service Forest Products Laboratory.

In addition to short‑term market forecasting, the project will examine how Southern forest markets may evolve over the long term using the Forest Resource Outlook Model.

“One area of emphasis is how future timber supply and hurricane risk interact with alternative socioeconomic development pathways, known as shared socioeconomic pathways,” Lamichhane said. “These scenarios reflect changes in forest ownership, management strategies and demand for forest products, including products flows and trade patterns.

“The team will also examine how futures characterized by greater corporatization and expanding new forest products market may alter land‑use competition and management incentives, ultimately shaping the long‑term sustainability of Southern forests,” she added.

“Our goal is to provide a comprehensive, data‑driven outlook for Southern forestry,” Lamichhane said. “By integrating economic trends, natural disturbance risks and future socioeconomic scenarios, we aim to deliver a forward‑looking perspective that helps stakeholders understand not only what might happen next, but how and why forest markets respond over time.”

Lamichhane said by linking advanced modeling techniques with regional expertise, the project aims to provide insights that support risk management, supply‑chain resilience and sustainable forest management, strengthening the long‑term competitiveness of Southern forests and forest product industries.