Vol. 16, No. 7 / Price Impacts of Tariffs on U.S. Crawfish Imports

Abstract 

• This newsletter compiles the monthly selected U.S. crawfish imports and calculated duties from January 2021 to April 2026. 
• The average crawfish import prices are imputed from the values and volumes of selected crawfish imports.
• This newsletter explores the impacts on the imputed average prices of selected U.S. crawfish imports by the calculated duties and selected economic factors. 

Keywords 

• Crawfish imports, calculated duties, and price impacts. 

Suggested Citation 

Posadas, Benedict C. 2026. Price Impacts of Tariffs on U.S. Crawfish Imports. Vol. 16, No. 7. Mississippi State University Extension and Mississippi-Alabama Grant Publication MASGP-26-059-7. July 14, 2026. 10 pp. 

Methods 

• Monthly data on selected U.S. crawfish imports are compiled from the NOAA Fisheries website from January 2021 to April 2026. 
• The calculated duties on selected U.S. crawfish imports have been summarized monthly since January 2021. 
• An econometric model is estimated to measure the impacts of calculated duties and selected economic factors on the imputed average prices of selected U.S. crawfish products.
• Source of raw data 

U.S. Seafood Trade Model

• The econometric model of the U.S. Seafood Trade assumes that import prices could be explained by: 
  • Year,
  • Month, 
  • Product form (frozen, peeled), 
  • Average calculated duties (%),
  • Volume of imports (lb),
  • Other variables. 
• The Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) model of U.S. Seafood Trade consists of the following dependent variable:
  • Deflated imputed average import price ($/kg).
• The OLS model of U.S. seafood trade is estimated using the robust variance procedure in Stata 19.
• The variation inflation factor is calculated to detect the possible presence of multicollinearity.
• The marginal impacts are computed using the margins procedure. 

U.S. Crawfish Imports Countries of Origin

• Figure 1 shows the countries of origin of the U.S. monthly imports of crawfish from 2019 to 2025. 
• China's share averaged 64%, followed by Egypt at 13% and Spain at 11%. 
• In the long run, China's share stood at 94% from 1990 to 1999, 90% from 2000 to 2009, and 89% from 2010 to 2018, as Figure 2 shows. 

U.S. Monthly Crawfish Imports  

• U.S. crawfish imports consisted of frozen crawfish and peeled crawfish. 
• Frozen crawfish imports from China were subject to calculated duties of about 25% starting in 2020.
• Calculated duties were imposed on peeled crawfish from China starting in 2020 at about 25%

U.S. Monthly Imports of Frozen Oysters

• Figure 3 shows the remarkably downward-sloping relationship between the deflated prices and calculated duties on U.S. monthly imports of frozen crawfish.
• Figure 4 shows a slightly downward-sloping scatter diagram of deflated prices and U.S. monthly imports of frozen crawfish.

U.S. Monthly Imports of Peeled Crawfish

• Figure 5 shows the notably downward-sloping relationship between the deflated prices and calculated duties on U.S. monthly imports of peeled crawfish.
• Figure 6 shows the slightly downward-sloping scatter diagram between the deflated prices and U.S. monthly imports of peeled crawfish.

Direst Impacts on Deflated Prices of U.S. Monthly Crawfish Imports

• Figure 7 shows the direct impacts on deflated prices of U.S. monthly crawfish imports by calculated duties and selected economic factors. 
• Five factors exerted significant impacts on the deflated prices of U.S. monthly crawfish imports.
• The deflated prices of U.S. monthly imports of crawfish were significantly declining over time.
• Significantly lower deflated prices of U.S. crawfish imports were observed in December.
• The deflated prices of U.S. monthly imports of frozen crawfish were significantly lower than those of peeled crawfish imports.
• Higher import volumes led to lower deflated prices for U.S. monthly crawfish imports. 
• Higher calculated duties have significant negative effects on deflated prices of U.S. monthly crawfish imports.

Summary, Limitations, and Implications

• Five factors exerted significant impacts on the deflated prices of U.S. monthly crawfish imports.
• The deflated prices of U.S. monthly imports of crawfish were significantly declining over time.
• Significantly lower deflated prices of U.S. crawfish imports were observed in December.
• The deflated prices of U.S. monthly imports of frozen crawfish were significantly lower than those of peeled crawfish imports.
• Higher import volumes led to lower deflated prices for U.S. monthly crawfish imports. 
• Higher calculated duties have significant negative effects on deflated prices of U.S. monthly crawfish imports. 
• Deflated prices of U.S. crawfish imports fell over time, were lower at higher calculated duties, and were lower for frozen crawfish than for frozen peeled crawfish. 
• The influx of low-cost seafood imports has severely reduced the profitability and market share of domestic crawfish producers along the Gulf Coast, particularly in Louisiana. 
• While cheap imports benefit consumer retail prices, they force local fishers and processors to compete at prices that frequently fall below their break-even points.

Acknowledgements 

• This newsletter is a contribution of the Mississippi Agricultural and Forestry Experiment Station and the Mississippi State University Extension Service.
• This material is based on work supported in part by the National Institute of Food and Agriculture, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Hatch project under accession number 100004, and
• The Mississippi-Alabama Sea Grant Consortium, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce, and the states of Alabama and Mississippi. Federal grant number NA24OARX417C0155-T1-01.
• The statements, findings, conclusions, and recommendations are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of any of these funders.