Tight margins, costly inputs shape planting intentions

STARKVILLE, Miss. -- Mississippi farmers are planning fewer acres of most major row crops in 2026, reflecting continued pressure from falling commodity prices and rising production costs, according to new data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture.

The USDA’s Prospective Plantings report shows intended acreage declines for corn, rice and cotton in Mississippi, while soybean acres are forecast to increase significantly. Nationally, total acres intended for planting across all crops dipped slightly compared to last year, underscoring what analysts say will be another challenging year for agriculture.

Growers in Mississippi plan to plant about 630,000 acres of corn in 2026, down 31% from the 910,000 acres planted in 2025. Rice acreage is projected at 80,000 acres, a 51% decrease from last year, while cotton acres are expected to fall 9%, from 330,000 acres to about 300,000 acres.

In contrast, soybean acreage is forecasted at 2.3 million acres, a 27% increase over the 1.81 million acres planted last year.

Will Maples, an agricultural economist with the Mississippi State University Extension Service, noted that some markets have shown modest improvement this winter.

“We have seen a decent rally in soybean and cotton prices this winter. Margins are still expected to be tight, but things are slightly better,” Maples said. “Last year, tariff uncertainty weighed on soybean prices and contributed to reduced acreage in Mississippi. This winter, soybean prices have strengthened, making them more competitive relative to other crops.”

Input costs remain a concern, however, especially fertilizer and fuel. Ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have added volatility to energy markets, which can extend to agriculture.

“The main issue is the potential disruption through the Strait of Hormuz, which is a key shipping route for fertilizer and energy products coming out of the Middle East,” Maples said. “The U.S. doesn’t rely heavily on those countries for fertilizer imports, but they are major suppliers to the rest of the world, so disruptions there can tighten global supplies and push prices higher.”

DTN Progressive Farmer reports that widely used fertilizers, including urea and anhydrous ammonia saw major price increases in March from the month before. Urea saw a month-to-month increase of 35% from $677 to $826 per ton. Anhydrous jumped 20% to more than $1,000 per ton.

“You use natural gas in the process of making nitrogen-based fertilizer, so if you’ve got petroleum fuels going up, it’s going to raise the prices of other forms of fuel,” said MSU Extension agricultural economist Steve Martin, who is based at the Delta Research and Extension Center in Stoneville.

“We usually see spikes in fertilizer prices this time of year anyway because there’s such a demand for it early in the year and then traditionally as we go into the summer after much of the demand has declined, prices decline,” Martin said. “Right now, the high cost of shipping as well as the fuel that goes into fertilizer production is contributing to fertilizer cost increases.”

Maples said higher input costs disproportionately affect crops with greater fertilizer needs.

“Higher fertilizer costs can influence planting decisions,” he said, “particularly for crops like corn that are more input‑intensive.” 

Much of the acreage movement within Mississippi reflects crop-by-crop economics. Corn acres continue to slide following a record U.S. crop and relatively weak price outlooks, while soybeans have become more competitive. 

According to financial data service CME Group, May 2026 corn futures were trading at $4.50-$4.60 per bushel on April 1 compared to $4.60-$4.70 per bushel a year before.

“We had such an early start on corn planting and might have had a lot more acreage if not for the rise in fertilizer prices,” Martin said. 

Soybeans were trading at about $11.70 per bushel April 1. The season average per-bushel price for 2025-26 was about $10.30. Cotton futures closed over 70 cents per pound, compared to just over 60 cents per pound in early April 2025.

“Cotton and soybean prices appear to have bottomed out over the last few months and are now seeing slight increases,” Martin said. “Neither of those prices are where we would like for them to be, but they are slightly better than last fall.”

Rounding out the planting intentions report, rice production is projected to be half what it was in 2025. Growers planted 164,000 acres of rice in 2025. 

Hay growers are forecasted to harvest 500,000 acres, down 11% from last year’s 560,000-acre hay harvest. Intended acreage for winter wheat is up 15% in 2026 to 75,000 acres. Peanut production is expected to drop more than 40% from 21,000 acres last year to 12,000 in 2026.

The prospective plantings report provides a snapshot of how producers are planning to manage risk entering the season. It is released each year at the end of March based on producer survey data gathered during the first two weeks of the month. The report reflects grower intentions and does not account for potential changes due to weather, input availability or late‑season price movements.